Political Outlook: 2010

04Jan10
It's a new year and new challenges are upon us.

The Obama administration, bolstered by Democratic control in both houses of Congress spent all of last year trying to bull through their Euro-socialist domestic policy in its entirety, and make a century of progressive wet dreams come true.

Though grassroots movements have caught on and continued to build momentum, they've found the GOP hypocritical for their participation in big government policies, and hesitated to back them fully.

Yet back them we must.

My long term goal is the establishment of a permanent, viable, three party system. But the most immediate need is to restore some balance to the halls of government, so the two party establishment can be locked in stalemate rather than further pillaging our constitution. To that end I invite you to think about the upcoming mid-term elections as an opportunity to swing some seats, and lay the groundwork for the words we're all dying to hear:

"One Term Obama Presidency"

It's only January, but in the coming days races will be shifting into high gear to battle for 38 Governorships, 35 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

The good news is that mid-terms trend toward being a referendum on how the public views the incumbent president, and folks, America's love affair with the chosen one is on the outs. His approval ratings have dropped more than twenty points since inauguration, with almost half the country voicing their strong opposition to his policies.

The bad news is that the only thing the American voter likes less than Barack, is the GOP. Their approvals ratings are worse than his are, much worse. Republicans need to paint themselves as something more than obstructionists, and pay the concepts of free markets and smaller government more than lip service.

So let's take a look at where we need to focus our efforts. 35 Senate seats are going up in 35, of which Republicans are defending 18, including 6 seats due to retirement where the Democratic challenger will not face an incumbent. Some of the senators the DNC will be looking to pick off are:

Robert Bennett, R-Utah. A borderline RINO, Bennett will face a strong challenge from the GOP in the Republican primary that could turn voters off of the party.

Richard Burr, R-North Carolina. N.C. increasingly trends for Democrats, and if they find a strong candidate, the incumbent Burr will be in for a hard fight.

David Vitter, R-Louisiana. Vitter faces a strong challenger from the Democrats, and has had trouble holding his base following an admission that he had an extramarital affair.

Thankfully, some high profile Democrats are seeking re-election as well. Here's the most wanted list:

Harry Reid, D-Nevada. Early numbers show mister health care trailing his little known GOP challenger in the polls. Nevada is a well known swing state, but Reid has substantial reserve funds and the full backing of his party.

Chris Dodd, D-Connecticut. Vulnerable, and disliked even among his constituents, Dodd trails his opponent by double digits. Look for Obama to stump hard for him this year.

Edit: The rumor now among party insiders is the Dodd will not seek re-election.

Barbara Boxer, D-California. Given her Cap and Trade crusade and the poor state of California's economy, boxer could face a strong threat from former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

Arlen Specter, D-Pennsylvania. The party jumper will face strong threats in both the primary and general elections.

In the House of Representatives Republican incumbents in general are more secure, with one notable exception:

Anh “Joe” Cao, R-Louisiana. Cao represents a district that Obama carried by a 52 points, and thoroughly alienated any the party base by voting for the House health care bill in exchange for a large package of earmarks for his district. He is a lamb to the slaughter.

But there's plenty of vulnerable Democrats to make up the probably loss of Cao's seat:

Walter Minnick, D-Idaho. Minnick tried to protect himself in a largely Republican district, distancing himself from Democrats and highlighting his bipartisanship. But a strong Republican candidate will assure his defeat.

Bobby Bright, D-Alabama. Only two representatives have districts more Republican than Bright’s, and the GOP has no shortage of challenger waiting to take him on.

Steve Driehaus, D-Ohio. Re matched with the GOP congressman he defeated in 2008, but now hurt by Obama's low approval rating.

Mary Jo Kilroy, D-Ohio. M.J. is carrying low approval ratings into a race against the Republican she barely beat to win her seat in 2008.

So that's a thumbnail sketch of how things are shaping up for the year. It's critical that the GOP make a good showing, to put them in the best position possible going into the 2011 redistricting following this year's census.

Early estimate show the probability that Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Washington will pick up seats in the redistricting. Among them Republicans control the governorship and legislature in five of the eight states. Ten states in the Midwest and rust belt will lose seats. In Illinois, Massachusetts and New York, Democrats control the state government. In five of the states control of state government is split.

All of that makes gubernatorial elections in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania critical to a favorable redistricting result for the GOP.

Know the score in your state, and know where you stand. Pick a freedom loving candidate and support them with your time, and hard earned cash. It's a good investment.